We really, really need to take a hard look at our energy policies.
Our (again, "we" in here means the West, led by the US) oil policies have been supply-driven: get the oil out of the ground and onto the markets.
Early on, it was easy, the US was the largest producer and the biggest exporter. Then production elsewhere started; BigOil took care of it and kept most of the revenues. Then the producing countries started to ask for a share of the pie, in many cases nationalised their industry, or forced a much more favorable (for them) sharing of the pie. As they exercised a bigger control on the industry locally, it was decided to try to exert influence over these governments in more or less subtle ways.
The result has been pretty pathetic: a series of corrupt, unpopular governments, cut off from their population. They would try to buy off the population in good oil revenue years, but this is addictive; when you are given money, you get used to it and you are unhappy if it stops. If oil prices go down, the economy goes south and the population is pissed. As they have not had to work for a living previously, nothing can replace the missing goodies. In the meantime, the elite is obviously, sometimes obcenely wealthy with money with a distinct US smell...
The population associates corruption with the West and with any economic downturn. The only people providing social services and care are the religious guys; they also provide a visible contrast in morality and ethics, and they are a safe way to be involved in a movement indirectly critical of the corrupt regime.
The Israel-Palestine issue only inflames things further (this with the complicity of the regimes, happy to divert attention from theit own domestic problems and responsibilities)
All these tendencies are starkest in SA and can explain the rise of AQ.
To fight Islamic terrorism, we need to cut off these links.
1) We do not need friendly regimes to get the oil. They need to export it and they WILL sell it at the market price. "Enemy" providers are often the most reliable, see the Soviet Union in the 70s and 80s. They do not have money to do the necessary investments; this can be provided by the West and will allow some participation for our own industries and companies.
2) as a consequence, we do not need to support all these corrupt regimes. All we should care about is stability, where we can actually help (by opening markets, preventing international conflicts, offering help) and who knows what they will get to internally (maybe even democracy?!)
3) the next step is that Islam should stop being the sole political opposition within these countries. With the current situation, this is of course easier said than done. The situation in SA, as discussed in the above posts, show that religion and power are intertwined in ways that are not easy to describe and will not be easy to undo.
4) altogether, we should interfere less. I am not sure that it has been very useful in the end. Some of the biggest suppliers, like Iran and Russia, are quite hostile to outside intervention/investment/involvement in their energy industries, and yet they are amongst the most reliable exporters
5) on the other hand, we should get international cooperation on track, with much more constraining procedures regarding money laundering, weapons proliferation. This sounds unlikely today, but it would work.
5) to get back to our domestic energy policy. We need to find strategic safety in lessening our dependency on oil. It's not wise politically, it's extremely expensive in military terms, and it's not even good ecologically speaking. Let's spend the same amounts of money on clean forms of energy (I'm involved in wind now, so I push that, but everything else should be developed: biofuels, solar, more hydro, etc - and simple energy savings. I'll keep nuclear (which I also favor) for another discussion...)
6) muscular intervention in Israel/Palestine would also be required. Tell Israel that their policies (especially the land grabs and the permanent show and use of force) are not viable; Tell the Palestinians to focus on improving their lifes instead of trying to drag Israel down with them (invest in education, stop considering suicide bombers as heroes - they are not). Tell the Arab countries to get on with the fact that Israel is and will be there. Tell all to focus on the very long term perspective of Euro-Mediterranean Union (America beware, Africa will be ours too, so could South America!)
I think this would actually be a decent policy against terrorism...
